Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Small sample size of challenges per team limits statistical reliability
Calibrated 100% · raw 4600% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:20:31 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
-46.0
Opportunity
16.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will the Seattle Mariners have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? is a low-probability event, which may lead to a higher likelihood of other unexpected events, such as Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? or Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?; Similarly, the uncertainty surrounding the Mariners' performance may be influenced by the overall performance of other MLB teams, which could be related to the outcome of Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?, as an unusual event; The market may also consider the potential impact of Iran Nuke before 2027? on global events, which could affect the 2026 MLB season; Lastly, the extreme weather event Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? could have an indirect effect on the performance of the Seattle Mariners and other MLB teams.
correlates · strength 60%
Will the Seattle Mariners have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,289
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4600.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
100d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will resolve in favor of the team that records more challenges won during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the team with the highest won% cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a 50% chance that the Seattle Mariners lead MLB in ABS challenge success rate during the 2026 regular season, a remarkably high probability for a single team out of 30. Given the absence of a clear structural edge for the Mariners in challenge accuracy, this price appears significantly elevated relative to any reasonable baseline. The market likely overstates their chances due to hype or mispricing.
The Mariners have a reputation for strong analytics and could invest heavily in an ABS challenge strategy, giving them an edge. If they develop a proprietary system or hire key personnel familiar with MLB's ABS implementation, their challenge success rate could outperform the league. Their pitching-focused roster may encounter more borderline calls, creating more opportunities to win challenges.
ABS challenge success is highly random year-to-year, and no team has consistently led in challenge accuracy since the system's introduction. The Mariners lack a demonstrated track record in this specific metric, and the field of 29 other teams includes many with equal or better analytical resources. Regression to the mean is likely, making a 50% probability unsustainable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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