Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected Democratic surge in statewide races
AI updated 6/28/2026, 9:15:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
94%
ORYN Consensus
94%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,282,484
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 90-97
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market strongly favors Republican victory in the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial race with a 93.50% probability. Oklahoma has historically been a Republican stronghold, and current political trends in the state reinforce this outlook.
Oklahoma’s deep-red political leanings, consistent Republican dominance in statewide elections, and recent GOP control of the governorship suggest strong momentum for Republican candidates. The state’s electoral history and partisan alignment with national Republican trends support a likely Republican win.
A Republican loss could occur if a high-profile Democratic candidate emerges with broad appeal, or if internal GOP divisions weaken party cohesion. Additionally, shifting demographics or unexpected scandals could disrupt Republican dominance in the state.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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