Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected shifts in voter demographics
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:30:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
88%
ORYN Consensus
88%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to: Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by the end of 2023?, Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria?, Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? as these are isolated events
correlates · strength 60%
Inversely related to: Will US Fed cut rates in Q3 2026? due to potential economic implications on voter sentiment
correlates · strength 60%
Related to: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? as it may indicate economic conditions influencing voter decisions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 85-91
—
Resolution
74d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market strongly favors the Republican Party winning the WI-07 House seat in the 2026 midterms, with an 87.50% probability. This reflects historical trends and partisan leanings in the district.
WI-07 has trended Republican in recent elections, with the party holding the seat since 2010. The district's conservative demographics and voting patterns suggest a high likelihood of Republican retention in 2026.
Democratic gains in suburban areas or shifts in voter sentiment could erode Republican margins. A strong third-party candidate or scandal affecting the Republican nominee could also upset the odds.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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