Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Extreme variance in single-season challenge success rates
Calibrated 100% · raw 4500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:19:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-45.0
Opportunity
15.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Will the Philadelphia Phillies have a better ABS success rate than the top 1 team in the 2026 MLB regular season?
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Will the Philadelphia Phillies have a better ABS success rate than the top 2 teams in the 2026 MLB regular season?
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Will the Philadelphia Phillies have a better ABS success rate than the top 3 teams in the 2026 MLB regular season?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,454,234
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
99d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will resolve in favor of the team that records more challenges won during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the team with the highest won% cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Phillies are priced at 50% to lead MLB in ABS challenge success rate in 2026, implying extreme confidence that is hard to justify for any single team. The market likely overweights recent spring training performance or perceived analytics edge. Return to expectation suggests substantial downward correction toward a more reasonable 3–5% baseline.
The Phillies have a sophisticated analytics staff that could develop an optimal challenge strategy, and their patient lineup generates more borderline pitches worth challenging. Early spring training data in 2025 showed the Phillies near the top in challenge accuracy, seeding a narrative that could sustain market belief.
A 50% probability for one specific team out of 30 is dramatically mispriced, even for the most analytics-savvy club. Challenge success rate is noise-prone, varies year-to-year, and other teams (e.g., Dodgers, Astros, Yankees) invest equally in data and coaching. The market is pricing in a near-certainty that is unsupported by the 2026 regular season structure.
Trade links and live readiness
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