Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Small sample size of challenges could make win percentage noisy
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:17:02 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,453,749
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
99d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will resolve in favor of the team that records more challenges won during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the team with the highest won% cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Yankees are a strong candidate given their resources and analytics investment, but the 50% market price seems high given 29 other teams compete for the top ABS challenge win rate. The outcome hinges on how teams adapt to the new automated ball-strike challenge system, which introduces significant uncertainty.
New York’s deep analytics department can optimize challenge decisions, and their veteran pitchers and catchers may excel at exploiting the ABS system. High media scrutiny could push the team to prioritize preparation, giving them a competitive edge in winning percentage.
Many teams have equally sophisticated analytics, and the ABS challenge success rate may be driven largely by random variation in a small sample of challenges. If the Yankees tie with another team, the alphabetical tiebreaker favors teams listed earlier (e.g., Arizona Diamondbacks).
Trade links and live readiness
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