Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or postponement invalidating the event
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:45:35 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,115,611
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 46-52
—
Resolution
23h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by any member of the official FOX broadcasting team during the English broadcast of the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX, scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 4 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, including any extra time or penalty shootout, if applicable. Pre-match and post-match commentary will not be considered. For the purpose of this market, the "FOX broadcasting team" refers to the officially assigned play-by-play announcer, match analyst, sideline reporter, and rules analyst assigned to this match by FOX Sports. Remarks made by other analysts, guest commentators, players, coaches, or any other individuals not part of the officially assigned broadcast team will not count toward resolution. If the Belgium vs Senegal match is definitively cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not air by July 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If this match is interrupted, abbreviated, or only partially aired, this market will resolve according to what has occurred up to that point. The resolution source for this market is the official English broadcast of the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX. Only remarks made live during the official broadcast will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market has a near-even probability (49.5%) of resolving to 'Yes' (term mentioned) or 'No' (term not mentioned) during the live FOX broadcast of the Belgium vs Senegal match. Resolution hinges on live commentary by the official FOX broadcasting team, excluding pre/post-match or non-team remarks.
The term 'not air' or a synonym (e.g., 'not broadcast,' 'blackout') is likely to be used by the FOX team due to technical issues, censorship, or broadcast delays, especially in high-stakes matches where unexpected events (e.g., weather, technical failures) could disrupt airing.
The term is unlikely to be mentioned, as live broadcasts typically avoid discussing their own transmission status unless critical issues arise. The FOX team may prioritize gameplay commentary, reducing the chance of such remarks.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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