Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_polling_surge_in_competitors
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:15:35 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 25.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
23d
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
90 points
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently assigns a 0.55% probability to the Christian Democrats (KD) winning the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome. Historical trends and polling suggest KD faces significant competition for the third-place position.
KD could secure the third most seats if current polling trends shift favorably due to strong campaign performance, voter mobilization, or coalition dynamics. A potential surge in conservative-leaning voter turnout or erosion of support for competitors like the Sweden Democrats (SD) could elevate KD's ranking.
KD's low probability reflects persistent challenges, including declining polling numbers, internal party struggles, or unfavorable coalition shifts. Competitors like the Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderates (M), or Social Democrats (SAP) are likely to outpace KD in seat distribution, limiting their path to third place.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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