Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Small sample size of challenges per team leading to statistical noise
Calibrated 100% · raw 2000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:18:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
30%
Signal Score
-20.0
Opportunity
12.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,445,122
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -2000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
99d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will resolve in favor of the team that records more challenges won during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the team with the highest won% cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 50% probability to the Athletics leading MLB in ABS challenge success rate in 2026, which appears high given their rebuilding status and limited resources. However, a dedicated focus on ABS training could provide a competitive edge, making this a high-variance proposition.
The Athletics may prioritize ABS preparation as a low-cost competitive advantage, leveraging young hitters who can adapt quickly to the challenge system. Their coaching staff could develop efficient challenge strategies, and the team's lack of star power might encourage greater discipline at the plate.
The Athletics face significant disadvantages, including a roster filled with inexperienced hitters, limited resources for advanced analytics compared to wealthier teams, and a likely low volume of challenges due to fewer plate appearances from struggling offensive production. Many teams with better talent and data infrastructure are more likely to achieve higher success rates.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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