Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or interruption: if the game is not aired live, the market resolves to '-No Qualifying Event-'
Calibrated 100% · raw 450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 10:30:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
55%
Signal Score
+4.5
Opportunity
2.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,346,793
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 450.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
11h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by any member of the official FOX broadcasting team during the English broadcast of the England vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX, scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, including any extra time or penalty shootout, if applicable. Pre-match and post-match commentary will not be considered. For the purpose of this market, the "FOX broadcasting team" refers to the officially assigned play-by-play announcer, match analyst, sideline reporter, and rules analyst assigned to this match by FOX Sports. Remarks made by other analysts, guest commentators, players, coaches, or any other individuals not part of the officially assigned broadcast team will not count toward resolution. If the England vs DR Congo match is definitively cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not air by July 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If this match is interrupted, abbreviated, or only partially aired, this market will resolve according to what has occurred up to that point. The resolution source for this market is the official English broadcast of the England vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup 2026 match on FOX. Only remarks made live during the official broadcast will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for whether FOX announcers will say 'Hattrick' or 'Hat Trick' during the England vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup 2026 match has a slight bullish bias at 54.50%, indicating a marginal preference for the term being spoken live during the broadcast. The outcome hinges entirely on real-time commentary, excluding pre/post-match discussions.
The term 'Hattrick' or 'Hat Trick' is likely to be mentioned if England scores three goals in the match or a player achieves the feat, as broadcasters often emphasize such milestones. The likelihood increases if the match features high-scoring moments or individual performances deserving of the term. FOX's commentary style, which occasionally uses colloquial or hyphenated terms, may favor 'Hattrick' over the traditional 'Hat Trick'.
The term may not be mentioned if the match lacks scoring milestones or if broadcasters adhere strictly to the traditional 'Hat Trick' phrasing without hyphenation. Low-scoring or uneventful games reduce the probability of the term being spoken live. Additionally, if FOX's broadcast team avoids colloquialisms or focuses on other narratives, the resolution could default to 'No'.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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