Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Velasco's historical performance ceiling well outside top-50 GC
Calibrated 100% · raw 4800% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:53:00 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-48.0
Opportunity
45.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Step Counting - Health
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,453,749
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4800.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
36d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Simone Velasco is a domestique and breakaway specialist, not a Grand Tour GC contender. The 50% probability massively overstates his chances of a top-3 finish in the Tour de France, making this market severely mispriced. Resolution to No is highly likely.
If Velasco has shown sudden, dramatic improvement in 2026 stage races and receives unprecedented team support, a top-3 GC finish might be theoretically possible. A perfect race with crashes to all top GC contenders could open the door for a shock result.
Velasco has never finished in the top 50 of a Grand Tour and lacks the physiological profile (VO2max, time-trialing ability) required for top GC. The Tour de France attracts the world's best GC riders from UAE, Visma, INEOS, and others, making a top-3 finish astronomically unlikely.
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