This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Key risk: Emergence of a consensus alternative candidate with stronger backing
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:45:21 AM
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick as the Democratic nominee for FL-20 in 2026 is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 0.35%. The race is wide open with no dominant frontrunner, and Cherfilus-McCormick's local influence is offset by strong competition and national dynamics.
Cherfilus-McCormick could gain traction if she consolidates local support in Broward County and leverages her incumbency advantage (if re-elected in 2024) to build a strong grassroots campaign. A late surge in fundraising or endorsements from key Florida Democrats could shift momentum in her favor.
The market reflects skepticism due to Cherfilus-McCormick's moderate record and potential competition from higher-profile candidates (e.g., a progressive challenger or a national figure recruited by the DCCC). Low name recognition outside FL-20 and potential primary fatigue could further diminish her chances.
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Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.4% while ORYN AI estimates 0.4%.
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