Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Emergence of a consensus alternative candidate with stronger backing
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:45:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 10.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
30 points
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick as the Democratic nominee for FL-20 in 2026 is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 0.35%. The race is wide open with no dominant frontrunner, and Cherfilus-McCormick's local influence is offset by strong competition and national dynamics.
Cherfilus-McCormick could gain traction if she consolidates local support in Broward County and leverages her incumbency advantage (if re-elected in 2024) to build a strong grassroots campaign. A late surge in fundraising or endorsements from key Florida Democrats could shift momentum in her favor.
The market reflects skepticism due to Cherfilus-McCormick's moderate record and potential competition from higher-profile candidates (e.g., a progressive challenger or a national figure recruited by the DCCC). Low name recognition outside FL-20 and potential primary fatigue could further diminish her chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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