Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Lack of clear underperformance metrics to justify changes
AI updated 7/1/2026, 9:16:03 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,173
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Sentinels' main VALORANT roster (defined as the players listed with "Active" status in the roster table on Sentinels' Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/valorant/Sentinels) by August 31, 11:59pm ET, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: JohnQT, Reduxx, Jerrwin, Cortezia, JonahP. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. Roster change refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active starting lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to bench/inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach and staff changes, and temporary stand-ins/substitutes will not count. A player appearing in the active lineup for matches or events solely as a designated substitute or stand-in for a single event does not count toward a roster change. To qualify, a roster change must be officially confirmed by Sentinels or the player involved; leaks, rumors, or unconfirmed reporting do not count until officially confirmed. A qualifying roster change must occur on or before the deadline, and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the change appears in the resolution source, it must remain live for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the change itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted or removed before 48 hours have elapsed, the window resets and will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/valorant/Sentinels), however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Sentinels' roster change before September 2026 is balanced at 50%, reflecting equal likelihood of stability or adjustment in the active VALORANT roster. The probability suggests no dominant expectation of change, given the team's recent performance and external factors.
Sentinels may make a roster change to address underperformance or strategic needs, particularly if internal evaluations reveal gaps in the current lineup. External pressure from competitors or player dissatisfaction could also accelerate moves. A high-profile signing or transfer could boost morale and performance.
Sentinels may retain the current roster due to strong cohesion, financial constraints, or confidence in the existing lineup's potential. Stability could be prioritized over risk, especially if recent results are satisfactory. Regulatory or contractual hurdles might delay or prevent changes.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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