This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Key risk: Negotiated settlement ambiguity (de facto vs. de jure control)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:45:14 AM
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assesses a low 10.5% probability that Russia will capture the specified intersection in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast by July 31, based on ISW map criteria and current battlefield dynamics. The assessment reflects minimal recent progress in the area and high Ukrainian defensive resilience.
Russia could capture Stavky by July 31 if it exploits a localized breakthrough in Donetsk Oblast, leveraging superior artillery and manpower in a concentrated assault. A negotiated settlement granting de facto control (though not de jure) would also trigger a 'Yes' resolution, though this scenario is unlikely given stated conditions.
Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk remain robust, with recent counteroffensives repelling Russian advances near key settlements. Logistical constraints, minefields, and Ukrainian air defenses further hinder Russian progress, making Stavky capture improbable by the deadline.
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Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 10.5% while ORYN AI estimates 10.5%.
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