Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Crash or illness during the three-week race
Calibrated 100% · raw 3000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:51:48 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
20%
Signal Score
-30.0
Opportunity
18.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Romain Grégoire's 2026 Tour De France performance is correlated with his past performances
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,454,234
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
36d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Romain Grégoire, a young French climber for Groupama-FDJ, is seen as a longshot for a Tour de France podium in 2026 despite his burgeoning talent. The market's 50% probability reflects extreme uncertainty around his ability to outperform established champions like Pogacar and Vingegaard. A podium finish would require a major breakthrough, ideal team support, and some misfortune for rivals.
Grégoire is a rising star with strong climbing ability and has shown steady progression in stage races. If he peaks at the Tour and receives full team backing, he could exploit the mountainous stages to gain time. His youth and adaptability make him a potential dark horse in a race often decided by attrition.
The Tour de France is dominated by multiple Grand Tour winners, and Grégoire lacks experience and proven time-trial capabilities. Making the top 3 requires consistency across three weeks, which he has yet to demonstrate at this level. Even a top-10 finish would be a career-best, making a podium highly improbable.
Trade links and live readiness
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