Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Debruyne may fail to adapt to Grand Tour demands (consistency, recovery, pressure)
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:50:38 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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r1: Will Ramses Debruyne finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,453,749
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
36d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market prices a 50% chance that Ramses Debruyne, a young Belgian rider, will finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour de France. While he is a promising talent who won the Tour de l'Avenir, a top-3 finish in the world's most competitive Grand Tour by age 24 is historically very unlikely. The probability appears inflated relative to realistic expectations, making a 'No' outcome more probable.
Debruyne has exceptional climbing and time-trialling ability, evidenced by his dominant U23 performances. With dedicated GC support from Alpecin-Deceuninck and a favorable route (e.g., fewer high-mountain stages, more ITT kilometers), he could challenge for the podium. His progression in 2025—particularly in week-long stage races and a first Grand Tour—will be critical.
The Tour de France podium is dominated by established superstars (Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel) with deep team support and proven Grand Tour experience. Debruyne has never completed a Grand Tour and Alpecin lacks a strong GC pedigree. The depth of competition and the physical toll of a three-week race at age 24 make a top-3 finish extremely improbable.
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