Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries or illnesses disrupting preparation
Calibrated 100% · raw 4900% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:52:12 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-49.0
Opportunity
46.5
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
The 'Iran Nuke before 2027?' market is unrelated to the athletic performance or sports-related markets.
correlates · strength 60%
The outcome of 'Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?' is dependent on individual factors, which are not directly related to the outcome of 'Will Quinten Hermans finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?' or 'Will [X] win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?'.
correlates · strength 60%
The 'Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?' market is also unrelated to the athletic performance or sports-related markets.
correlates · strength 60%
Quinten Hermans' Tour de France performance is related to his overall athleticism and endurance, which is also relevant to athletes participating in the FIFA World Cup. Therefore, the markets 'Will Quinten Hermans finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?' and 'Will [X] win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' are related.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,454,234
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4900.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
36d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Quinten Hermans is a Belgian cyclist specializing in cyclo-cross and one-day classics, not Grand Tour general classification. His chance of finishing top 3 in the 2026 Tour de France is negligible given the elite GC competition and his lack of sustained climbing ability. The market probability of 50% appears vastly overpriced relative to realistic expectations.
If Hermans transitions to a GC role with dramatic improvement in time trialing and high-altitude climbing, he could theoretically contend. A favorable route with reduced time trials and multiple stages suited to his punchy style might allow him to gain time. Strong team support and a focus on stage racing could narrow the gap to top contenders.
Hermans has never shown GC ability in a Grand Tour, with his best results in one-day races and stage wins from breakaways. The Tour de France top 3 requires sustained three-week performance against riders like Pogacar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel, who are decades better in climbing and time trialing. His physical build and racing history strongly suggest he is not a GC rider.
Trade links and live readiness
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