Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory uncertainty or bans in major markets
Calibrated 100% · raw 1000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 5:30:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
60%
Signal Score
+10.0
Opportunity
5.5
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Inversely related to Manifold.love market, as Polymarket and Manifold.love are competing prediction platforms
correlates · strength 60%
Positively correlated with crude oil market volatility, as geopolitical events like Strait of Hormuz disruptions can impact oil prices and increase interest in prediction markets like Polymarket
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, as this is a political event with no direct connection to Polymarket's market share
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,027,983
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
184d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released. The resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Polymarket achieving 90% mindshare by December 31, 2026, is a high-barrier outcome given current market dynamics, with historical mindshare data suggesting strong competition from other prediction platforms. The resolution hinges on Polymarket's ability to sustain or rapidly increase its share of the prediction market ecosystem, which currently sits below 90%.
Polymarket could hit 90% mindshare by December 31, 2026, if it capitalizes on regulatory tailwinds, expands into new markets (e.g., Asia-Pacific with localized content), or experiences a viral growth event driven by high-profile political or economic events. Success in integrating AI-driven features or partnerships with major tech platforms could also accelerate mindshare growth.
Polymarket may fail to reach 90% mindshare if competition intensifies (e.g., Betfair, PredictIt, or new entrants gaining traction), regulatory crackdowns limit its operations, or user trust erodes due to controversies (e.g., market manipulation, data privacy issues). Stagnant growth or platform instability could also hinder progress.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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