Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury to key players (e.g., midfielders like Miguel Almirón)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:35:05 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
77%
ORYN Consensus
77%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Sports: World Cup Round of 32, Paraguay
correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 74-80
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Paraguay is eliminated. If Paraguay wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Paraguay is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Paraguay based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market strongly favors Paraguay advancing beyond the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with a 77% probability. Paraguay's historical World Cup performance, recent qualifying form, and tournament structure support this outcome.
Paraguay has a realistic chance to progress past the Round of 32 due to a favorable group draw, improved squad depth, and tactical adaptability under recent management. Their historical resilience in knockout stages (e.g., 2010 Round of 16) and strong CONMEBOL qualifying form (5th place in 2022 cycle) bolster their viability. The expanded 2026 tournament (48 teams) increases chances for underdogs to advance.
Paraguay faces stiff competition in CONMEBOL qualifying, where they often struggle against top-tier teams (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia). Defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent attacking output could hinder their knockout-stage progression. The Round of 32 may prove a bridge too far given Paraguay's lack of recent deep-tournament success (last Round of 16 in 2010).
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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