This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Paraguay is eliminated. If Paraguay wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Paraguay is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Paraguay based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Injury to key players (e.g., midfielders like Miguel Almirón)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:35:05 PM
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Paraguay is eliminated. If Paraguay wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Paraguay is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Paraguay based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
77%
ORYN Consensus
77%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market strongly favors Paraguay advancing beyond the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with a 77% probability. Paraguay's historical World Cup performance, recent qualifying form, and tournament structure support this outcome.
Paraguay has a realistic chance to progress past the Round of 32 due to a favorable group draw, improved squad depth, and tactical adaptability under recent management. Their historical resilience in knockout stages (e.g., 2010 Round of 16) and strong CONMEBOL qualifying form (5th place in 2022 cycle) bolster their viability. The expanded 2026 tournament (48 teams) increases chances for underdogs to advance.
Paraguay faces stiff competition in CONMEBOL qualifying, where they often struggle against top-tier teams (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia). Defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent attacking output could hinder their knockout-stage progression. The Round of 32 may prove a bridge too far given Paraguay's lack of recent deep-tournament success (last Round of 16 in 2010).
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Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 77% while ORYN AI estimates 77%.
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