Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Non-selection for the Tour de France due to team strategy
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:09:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,107,760
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
37d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Nils Politt is a classics specialist and domestique, not a Grand Tour general classification contender, making a top-3 finish in the 2026 Tour de France highly improbable. The market at 50% appears dramatically overpriced relative to his historical GC performances and team role. Unless there is a radical shift in his career trajectory, this market should resolve to 'No'.
Politt could benefit from crashes or disqualifications among top GC contenders, potentially opening a path to a top-3 finish. He also has strong one-day race abilities and could theoretically improve his climbing if given a leadership role, though this is highly speculative.
Politt has never finished near the top 3 of a Grand Tour and serves as a domestique, primarily helping team leaders like Tadej Pogačar. He lacks the sustained climbing performance and team support needed for a high GC finish, making a top-3 result virtually impossible under normal circumstances.
Trade links and live readiness
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