Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential early elections disrupting SNS dominance
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:00:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
680d
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Miloš Vučević's probability of becoming Serbia's next Prime Minister by June 30, 2028, stands at 50%, reflecting a highly uncertain political landscape. The market hinges on Serbia's evolving domestic politics, coalition dynamics, and potential shifts in leadership within the ruling party.
Vučević's bull case relies on his continued influence within the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and President Vučić's backing, potentially positioning him as a consensus candidate in post-Vučić succession. A stable SNS majority in the National Assembly could facilitate his election, especially if Vučić endorses him as the party's leader.
The bear case argues that Vučević's candidacy could falter if internal party divisions emerge or if Vučić pivots to another successor (e.g., Ana Brnabić or a technocratic figure). Opposition gains in future elections or public backlash against SNS policies could also derail his path to the premiership.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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