Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected scandals or controversies involving Minogue
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 6:30:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
94%
ORYN Consensus
92%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,218,028
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 90-97
—
Resolution
64d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts, scheduled to take place on September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market strongly favors Michael Minogue winning the 2026 Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial primary with a 93.50% probability. This reflects overwhelming confidence in his candidacy, though the prediction is based on limited available data given the distant election timeline.
Michael Minogue is a well-established figure in Massachusetts Republican politics, with strong name recognition and likely support from party leadership. His potential fundraising advantage and grassroots backing could secure a dominant primary victory. The lack of credible opposition candidates further strengthens his position.
The 2026 primary is still years away, leaving ample time for unexpected challengers to emerge or for Minogue to face controversy that could erode his support. Voter sentiment could shift significantly due to national political trends or local issues, potentially derailing his campaign.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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