Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Emergence of a stronger primary opponent with broader appeal
Calibrated 100% · raw 350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:30:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
79%
ORYN Consensus
75%
Signal Score
-3.5
Opportunity
2.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,469,098
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -350.0¢
Entry: 76-82
—
Resolution
13h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Melat Kiros has a 78.5% probability of becoming the Democratic nominee for CO-01 in the 2026 midterms, indicating strong market confidence. The primary election is scheduled for June 30, 2026, with resolution contingent on official Democratic sources.
Kiros benefits from high early polling, strong grassroots fundraising, and endorsements from key Democratic figures or organizations, securing the nomination by a wide margin. A favorable national political environment for Democrats in 2026 could further boost her prospects.
Kiros faces unexpected competition from a high-profile primary challenger, scandals, or controversies that erode her support. A shift in Democratic Party priorities or a surge in progressive opposition could derail her campaign.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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