Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Le Berre may fail to make the leap to elite GC level
Calibrated 100% · raw 4500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:50:12 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-45.0
Opportunity
31.5
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
36d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Market assesses 50% chance that Mathis Le Berre finishes top 3 in the 2026 Tour de France. Le Berre is a young French rider without top GC credentials, making the current probability surprisingly high. The market appears to factor in significant expected improvement or favorable circumstances.
Le Berre is still young (born 2001) and could develop into a GC contender by 2026. He benefits from strong French team support and could gain from a weakened or attritional field. Unexpected breakthrough performances by younger riders do occur in Grand Tours.
Le Berre has not shown top-3 level GC ability, with his best performances far from Tour podium contention. The current elite of Pogačar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Roglič dominate, and several other riders are clearly ahead. Even with improvement, overcoming such depth is extremely unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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