Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or decline in Messi's performance pre-tournament
AI updated 7/1/2026, 11:31:01 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 41% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,604,273
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
32d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of goals Lionel Messi scores during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Only goals credited on FIFA's official scoresheet will count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. Own goals do not count toward the final total. If Lionel Messi does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many goals Lionel Messi scored within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Lionel Messi scoring 8+ goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is evenly split, reflecting uncertainty due to his age, tournament format, and historical performance. The 50% probability suggests equal likelihood of resolution in either direction.
Messi could score 8+ goals if he remains in top form, plays a central role for Argentina, and the tournament's expanded format (48 teams) increases match opportunities. His penalty-taking ability and late-career resurgence (e.g., 2022 World Cup) support this scenario.
Messi may fall short due to age (39 in 2026), reduced stamina, or tactical shifts limiting his goal-scoring role. Argentina's defensive focus or early elimination could also curtail his goal tally, as seen in past tournaments where his goal output was modest.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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