Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or health decline before July 6
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:35:11 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of international politics
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LeBron's contract signing is independent of personal achievements
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LeBron's contract signing is independent of global climate events
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of sports events
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
120d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve in favor of the listed date that LeBron James agrees to his next contract with an NBA team. If LeBron does not sign a contract, retires, or the date of agreement cannot be determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “July 7 or After”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
LeBron James' next NBA contract signing date is highly uncertain due to his age (40+), contract negotiations, and team dynamics. The 50% market probability reflects balanced uncertainty between July 6 and alternative outcomes.
LeBron signs early (July 6) due to strong team interest (e.g., Lakers or another contender), favorable financial terms, or personal motivation to secure a short-term deal. His marketability and veteran influence could expedite negotiations.
LeBron delays signing past July 6 due to retirement considerations, contract disputes, or team uncertainty (e.g., salary cap constraints, roster changes). His age and physical decline may reduce urgency in negotiations.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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