Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or health issues delaying contract discussions
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:35:04 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
No connection to individual's daily activity
correlates · strength 60%
No correlation with global temperature records
correlates · strength 60%
No correlation with football team outcomes
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of other outcomes
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
119d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve in favor of the listed date that LeBron James agrees to his next contract with an NBA team. If LeBron does not sign a contract, retires, or the date of agreement cannot be determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “July 7 or After”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for LeBron James signing his next NBA contract on July 5 is at 50%, indicating a highly uncertain outcome. The resolution hinges on official announcements or credible sources by October 31, 2026.
LeBron signs early on July 5 due to strong team interest, favorable contract terms, or personal motivation (e.g., championship contention). His market value remains high, and teams may prioritize securing him before free agency deadlines.
LeBron delays signing past July 5 due to contract negotiations, team uncertainty, or retirement considerations. Offseason roster changes or salary cap constraints could push the agreement to July 7 or later.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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