Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncertainty in LeBron's future plans
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:34:44 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of FIFA World Cup winners
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of global temperature records
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of @firstuserhere's step count
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of Iran's nuclear program
correlates · strength 60%
LeBron's contract signing is independent of other events
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
120d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve in favor of the listed date that LeBron James agrees to his next contract with an NBA team. If LeBron does not sign a contract, retires, or the date of agreement cannot be determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “July 7 or After”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for LeBron James' next NBA contract signing date is evenly split, with a 50% probability assigned to a July 3 resolution. The outcome hinges on contract negotiations, team decisions, and LeBron's personal timeline, with no clear frontrunner emerging yet.
LeBron James may sign his next contract early due to strong team interest, favorable financial terms, or a desire to finalize plans before the season. A July 3 resolution could reflect urgency from either LeBron or a team to secure his services.
Delays in contract negotiations, LeBron's indecision, or a preference for signing later in the offseason could push the agreement past July 3. External factors like trade requests or roster changes may also complicate the process.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
