Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: injury or illness during preparation or race
Calibrated 100% · raw 3800% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:08:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-38.0
Opportunity
24.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Lars Craps' performance in the 2026 Tour De France is expected to be influenced by the overall performance of his team, which may be impacted by the team's strategy and riders' skills, similar to how national teams' performance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup may be influenced by their team's strategy and players' skills, similar to how @firstuserhere's ability to walk 100,000 steps in a day may be influenced by their physical fitness and daily routine, similar to how the development of Iran's nuclear program may be influenced by their technological capabilities and international relations, similar to how the hottest year on record in 2023 may be influenced by global climate patterns and environmental factors.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,108,370
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3800.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
37d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are otherwise no declared top 3 finishers declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Lars Craps is a talented Belgian rider but has not yet proven himself as a Grand Tour contender. A top-3 finish in the Tour de France requires elite climbing and time-trialing ability over three weeks, which he has not demonstrated. The 50% probability appears inflated relative to his current achievements and competition.
Craps is still young and could improve significantly by 2026. If he develops into a GC leader and receives strong team support, a top-3 finish is possible. His one-day race pedigree suggests he has the engine for long, hard stages.
Craps has never finished near the podium of a Grand Tour and faces superstars like Pogacar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel. Even as a domestique, he has not shown the sustained climbing ability required. Team Soudal-QuickStep typically prioritizes stage wins, not GC.
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
