Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or suspension during the tournament
AI updated 6/28/2026, 6:30:27 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
27%
ORYN Consensus
27%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,016,975
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 24-30
—
Resolution
35d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the number of goals Lamine Yamal scores during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Only goals credited on FIFA’s official scoresheet will count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. Own goals do not count toward the final total. If Lamine Yamal does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many goals Lamine Yamal scored within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a low probability (26.5%) that Lamine Yamal will score 4+ goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting skepticism about his goal-scoring potential given historical trends and competition dynamics.
Yamal's exceptional dribbling, creativity, and youth could lead to a breakout tournament, especially if Spain advances deep and he faces weaker defenses. A high-scoring Spain team with Yamal as a focal point could justify the 4+ goal scenario.
Historical data shows few forwards score 4+ goals in a single World Cup; competition from established stars (e.g., Mbappé, Haaland) and defensive tactics may limit Yamal's goal tally. Injuries or tactical roles (e.g., winger) could further reduce his scoring chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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