Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Roster changes, injury, benching, or underperformance before MSI
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 3:31:25 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
The market is effectively independent from the personal steps challenge, Iran nuclear timeline, and hottest-year climate market, as they have no meaningful overlapping fundamentals or resolution mechanics with MSI Finals MVP.
correlates · strength 60%
At most, there may be a weak shared-event structure with the FIFA World Cup winner markets, since both depend on outcomes of competitive tournaments, but the domains, participants, and causal drivers are entirely separate.
correlates · strength 60%
No strong direct relationship: 'Will Keria Win MSI Finals MVP' is an esports award market, while the listed related markets concern unrelated topics such as FIFA World Cup national winners, a personal fitness challenge, nuclear proliferation, and global temperature records.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve according to the player who wins MVP at the 2026 Mid-Season Invitational (MSI 2026), currently scheduled for June 28 - July 12, 2026. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the competition is cancelled, postponed after July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the MSI 2026 Finals matchup is not determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If the Finals MVP of MSI 2026 is not determined by July 26, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the LoL Esports website (https://lolesports.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Mid-Season_Invitational/2026) may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market is a long-shot, player-specific prop on whether Keria wins MSI 2026 Finals MVP, with current pricing at 10%. The listed resolution source is strong despite the malformed URL in the prompt, because it clearly points to the official LoL Esports site, but Finals MVP is a narrow outcome that usually requires both team title contention and a standout championship-series performance.
Keria is an elite support whose teams are frequently deep international contenders, so a 10% price is plausible if his roster enters MSI as a top-tier favorite. Support players win MVP less often than carries, but Keria's playmaking, vision control, and narrative value can make him a visible MVP candidate if his team wins the final convincingly and no carry teammate clearly outshines him.
Finals MVP is concentrated in a very small set of outcomes: Keria's team must first reach and win the MSI final, then voters must prefer him over star teammates, often mid, ADC, or jungle carries with more obvious stat lines. For a support player, that creates two layers of difficulty, making 10% look a bit rich unless his team is among the clear top two tournament favorites.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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