Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Labour Party’s electoral mandate limiting leadership changes
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:15:14 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.2
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 20.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
133d
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Chancellor of the Exchequer will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor of the Exchequer is appointed, or Rachel Reeves is re-appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Chancellor in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a very low probability (0.85%) to John Healey becoming the next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer by 2026. Rachel Reeves remains the overwhelming favorite, with no clear alternative emerging in the short term.
Healey could emerge as a surprise candidate if Rachel Reeves faces political setbacks (e.g., scandal, resignation) or if Labour shifts to a more left-wing economic policy requiring a new Chancellor. His long tenure as Shadow Chancellor (2011–2024) and deep experience in fiscal policy could position him as a credible successor.
Healey’s prospects are minimal given Rachel Reeves’ entrenched position as the anointed successor to Jeremy Hunt. Labour’s electoral success in 2024 solidified her role, and no credible faction within the party is pushing for Healey as a replacement. Structural barriers (e.g., party loyalty, media scrutiny) further diminish his chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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