Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Emergence of a high-profile Democratic challenger with broader appeal
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:15:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,241,526
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Joe Reagan as the Democratic nominee for CO-05 in 2026 shows low probability (5.50%), indicating limited current support or visibility. The primary is over a year away, with no clear frontrunner emerging in early polling or party signals.
Joe Reagan gains significant grassroots support and endorsements from key Democratic figures in Colorado, positioning him as a formidable challenger in the primary. His policy stances resonate with the district's progressive base, and he secures early fundraising leads.
Joe Reagan fails to gain traction due to stronger competition from established Colorado Democrats, including incumbents or well-funded challengers. His campaign struggles with fundraising or messaging, leaving him as a peripheral candidate in the primary.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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