Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected health complications
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:50:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
99%
Signal Score
-0.9
Opportunity
0.9
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
unrelated
correlates · strength 60%
Jimmy Carter's mortality is independent of international sports events
correlates · strength 60%
Jimmy Carter's mortality is independent of nuclear proliferation
correlates · strength 60%
Jimmy Carter's mortality is independent of global temperature records
correlates · strength 60%
Jimmy Carter's mortality is independent of individual achievements
correlates · strength 60%
Jimmy Carter's mortality is independent of these events
correlates · strength 60%
unrelated
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -93.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly expects Jimmy Carter to remain alive through May 2024, with a 99.93% probability. This reflects his advanced age (99) and current health status, though no guarantees exist.
Jimmy Carter's longevity is historically notable, with his family and medical team providing consistent updates on his stable condition. His resilience and the absence of recent critical health reports support the high probability.
At 99 years old, Jimmy Carter's health is fragile, and sudden declines are possible. Historical precedents of rapid health deterioration in the elderly introduce non-trivial risk, despite the current odds.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
