Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: lack of polling or historical data for this specific race
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:30:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
45%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 42-48
—
Resolution
75d
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
4 points
The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Montgomery County.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently assigns a 44.50% probability to James Graf winning the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election. The race is highly uncertain given the early stage of the campaign cycle and lack of declared opponents or major polling.
James Graf could win due to strong name recognition in Montgomery County, potential endorsements from local political figures, or a lack of viable opponents emerging before the election. If he secures early fundraising and grassroots support, his probability could rise significantly by late 2025.
James Graf faces high uncertainty as an incumbent or challenger without established campaign infrastructure. If well-funded opponents enter the race or if his political alliances weaken, his probability could decline sharply. The market may also reflect skepticism about his electability in a county with shifting demographics.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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