Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data unavailability from NOAA by resolution deadline
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:30:34 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
25%
ORYN Consensus
26%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,158,282
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 22-28
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
14 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any precipitation is recorded at the specified weather station on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in the Dallas Area on July 4, 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for the specified date when the “Daily data for a month” for “Dallas Area” is selected with the variable set to “Precipitation” at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=fwd link once that figure is finalized for the specified date. Trace rain, specified by a “T” in the named column, will not qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market’s timeframe will not be considered for this market’s resolution. If the relevant data is not made available by July 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 25.5% probability of measurable rainfall in Dallas on July 4, 2026, based on historical weather trends and seasonal patterns. Historical data suggests low precipitation likelihood for this date, but variability exists due to climatic anomalies.
Climatic shifts, such as an active monsoon or tropical moisture surge, could increase rainfall probability. Unseasonable weather patterns, like an early cold front or localized thunderstorms, may also elevate precipitation chances beyond typical expectations.
Historical data indicates July 4 in Dallas is typically dry, with low humidity and minimal convective activity. Persistent high-pressure systems or drought conditions would further suppress rainfall likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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