Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Geopolitical tensions affecting team morale or logistics
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:00:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
13%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 11-17
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
33 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iran is eliminated. If Iran wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iran is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Iran based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low probability (12.5%) that Iran will be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, suggesting strong expectations for their advancement beyond this stage. Historical World Cup performance and recent form are key considerations in this assessment.
Iran could advance to the Round of 16 and beyond due to a favorable draw, improved squad depth, and tactical adjustments under their current coaching staff. Strong performances in recent AFC Asian Cup tournaments (2023) and a resilient defensive structure may boost their chances of progressing further.
Iran may face early elimination in the Round of 16 if they encounter top-tier opponents (e.g., Brazil, France, Argentina) or struggle with consistency in attack. Recent political and organizational instability within Iranian football could disrupt preparation and team cohesion.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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