Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory bans or restrictions on crypto derivatives trading
Calibrated 100% · raw 4750% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:08:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
33%
ORYN Consensus
80%
Signal Score
+47.5
Opportunity
30.9
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? and Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy) are negatively correlated, as a potential economic downturn could negatively impact the growth of Manifold.love, Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024? and Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition? are positively correlated, as a change in leadership could lead to a more open approach, Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages? is positively correlated with all the other markets as it could be a significant event that could impact the growth of Manifold.love and OpenAI, and Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026? is negatively correlated with the other markets as it is a long-term prediction and could be impacted by a range of factors, including the success of Manifold.love and OpenAI.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4750.0¢
Entry: 30-36
—
Resolution
133d
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
56 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest is equal to or greater than the amount specified in the title at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is Artemis Analytics, using the Hyperliquid page available at: https://classic.artemis.ai/asset/Hyperliquid?tab=hip_3 The value used will be the “Total” open interest shown when hovering over a daily bar in the “HIP-3 DEXs by Open Interest” chart. A daily value is considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable public data sources.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest reaching $7B by 2026 is currently undervalued at 32.50%, suggesting a high-risk, high-reward scenario. Historical growth in decentralized exchange (DEX) open interest and Hyperliquid's market share expansion are the primary bullish drivers.
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 DEXs have shown exponential growth in open interest, driven by increased institutional and retail adoption of AI-native trading platforms. If Hyperliquid maintains its 30%+ monthly growth rate and captures 20% of the AI-driven derivatives market by 2026, $7B open interest is achievable.
Regulatory crackdowns on crypto derivatives or AI-specific trading could stifle Hyperliquid's expansion. Competitive pressure from centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Binance or Bybit offering AI-native derivatives may limit Hyperliquid's market share growth, capping open interest below $7B.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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