Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions by NASA post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:35:45 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
14 points
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assesses a low 3.65% probability that NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 will fall within the narrow 1.20°C–1.24°C anomaly range, reflecting skepticism about such precise temperature alignment given historical volatility.
A bullish outcome could materialize if sustained El Niño conditions, reduced aerosol emissions, or unexpected solar activity align to push June 2026 temperatures into the 1.20°C–1.24°C range, though this requires unprecedented precision in climate forcing.
A bearish resolution is more likely given the market’s low probability, as historical June anomalies rarely cluster within a 0.04°C band, with 2023–2024 anomalies (e.g., 1.05°C–1.36°C) suggesting broader dispersion rather than tight clustering.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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