This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Key risk: Data revisions by NASA post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:35:45 PM
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assesses a low 3.65% probability that NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 will fall within the narrow 1.20°C–1.24°C anomaly range, reflecting skepticism about such precise temperature alignment given historical volatility.
A bullish outcome could materialize if sustained El Niño conditions, reduced aerosol emissions, or unexpected solar activity align to push June 2026 temperatures into the 1.20°C–1.24°C range, though this requires unprecedented precision in climate forcing.
A bearish resolution is more likely given the market’s low probability, as historical June anomalies rarely cluster within a 0.04°C band, with 2023–2024 anomalies (e.g., 1.05°C–1.36°C) suggesting broader dispersion rather than tight clustering.
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Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.7% while ORYN AI estimates 3.7%.
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