Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential early upsets in group stages due to tough draws
AI updated 6/26/2026, 12:55:59 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
No Direct Correlation: The performance of a national soccer team is not directly linked to the success of tech companies, economic policies, or geopolitical events.
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated: The outcome of the German soccer team in the World Cup is independent of the specified markets, such as Manifold.love daily active users, US debt ceiling, Sam Altman's CEO position, nation state use of LLMs for propaganda, and OpenAI's source code transparency.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 5-11
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Germany is eliminated. If Germany wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Germany is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Germany based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (8%) that Germany will be eliminated in the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the most likely outcomes being earlier elimination or a deeper run. Historical performance and recent form suggest Germany is a strong contender but not a prohibitive favorite.
Germany's historical dominance, strong squad depth, and tactical flexibility under modern management (e.g., Julian Nagelsmann) support a deep tournament run. The expanded 2026 format (48 teams) may reduce early elimination risks, allowing Germany to navigate group stages and knockout rounds more safely.
Germany's recent underperformance in major tournaments (e.g., 2022 World Cup group-stage exit) and aging core (e.g., Manuel Neuer's retirement) raise concerns about consistency. Injuries to key players or tactical missteps could derail their campaign before the final.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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