Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or suspension risk for Haaland before/during the tournament
AI updated 7/1/2026, 6:31:24 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of goals Erling Haaland scores during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Only goals credited on FIFA's official scoresheet will count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. Own goals do not count toward the final total. If Erling Haaland does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many goals Erling Haaland scored within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Erling Haaland scoring 8+ goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is at 50%, reflecting significant uncertainty due to the tournament's distant timeline and Haaland's reliance on team performance and individual form.
Haaland could score 8+ goals if Norway advances far in the tournament, he maintains peak form, and faces weaker defensive teams in early knockout rounds, capitalizing on high goal-scoring opportunities.
Haaland may fail to reach 8 goals if Norway underperforms, he faces strong defensive teams early, or injuries/suspensions limit his playing time, reducing his goal-scoring chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
