Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Strict spelling and context requirements for resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 4500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:46:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-45.0
Opportunity
29.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,167,508
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
7d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between June 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market reflects a 50% probability that Elon Musk will post the word 'Soccer' on his verified X account between June 29 and July 5, 2024. The resolution criteria are highly specific, requiring exact spelling and context-free usage, which introduces significant uncertainty.
Elon Musk may post about soccer due to his known interest in sports, particularly soccer (e.g., his ownership of X Football Club and past discussions on the sport). A high-profile event like the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament (June 14–July 14, 2024) could prompt a relevant post. His engagement with soccer-related topics on X in the past supports this scenario.
Elon Musk has shown inconsistent engagement with soccer recently, and his primary focus may be on AI, Tesla, or SpaceX. The word 'Soccer' is not commonly used in his verified posts, and his recent activity suggests a low likelihood of posting it verbatim. The strict resolution criteria further reduce the probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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