Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Low probability of Musk posting niche terms without provocation
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:46:49 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,167,133
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
7d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between June 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assessing whether Elon Musk will post the word 'Knicks' (in any valid form) on his verified X account this week is at a neutral 50% probability, reflecting balanced expectations. The outcome hinges entirely on Musk's unscripted social media behavior within a narrow timeframe.
Elon Musk has a history of referencing sports, basketball, or New York teams in casual or humorous contexts on X. If he attends a Knicks game or engages with sports-related content, the probability of a post increases. His tendency to post spontaneous, meme-like content (e.g., '420' or 'Tesla') also supports a bullish scenario.
Musk's verified X account has shown reduced activity in recent weeks, with a focus on broader business or technical announcements. The word 'Knicks' is niche and lacks direct relevance to his current public interests, making a deliberate post unlikely. Additionally, he may avoid sports references to maintain a professional tone.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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