Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential snap election or coalition government
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:30:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
63%
ORYN Consensus
65%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,140,394
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 250.0¢
Entry: 60-66
—
Resolution
186d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Chancellor of the Exchequer will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor of the Exchequer is appointed, or Rachel Reeves is re-appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Chancellor in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently assigns a 61.50% probability to Ed Miliband becoming the next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31, 2026. This reflects his position as a prominent Labour figure and potential successor to Rachel Reeves, given the current government's trajectory.
Ed Miliband's appointment is plausible due to the Labour Party's strong polling and potential electoral victory in 2024, positioning him as a natural candidate for a senior economic role. His prior experience as Shadow Chancellor and deep policy expertise could make him a preferred choice for a Labour government seeking stability.
Rachel Reeves' reappointment remains a significant risk, as her current tenure and Labour's preference for continuity in economic leadership could solidify her position. Political shifts or internal party dynamics within Labour may also marginalize Miliband's prospects.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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