Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected candidate withdrawal or scandal
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 2:00:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
98%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,209,127
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors Dwayne Romero as the Democratic nominee for CO-03 with a 98.45% probability, reflecting near-unanimous confidence in his candidacy. The resolution date of June 30, 2026, provides ample time for primary dynamics to shift, but no significant alternatives have emerged.
Romero's strong fundraising, grassroots support, and alignment with key Democratic Party priorities in Colorado's 3rd district position him as the frontrunner. His incumbency or prior political experience (if applicable) further solidifies his advantage. The lack of viable challengers in recent polling or party circles reinforces this outlook.
A late surge by an underdog candidate, such as a progressive challenger or a party-backed alternative, could upset Romero's lead. Unexpected scandals, legal issues, or a strategic shift in party preferences might also derail his nomination. The primary's proximity to the 2026 midterms introduces volatility.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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