Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: SNS's entrenched control over state institutions
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:01:10 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
680d
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Dragan Đilas as Serbia's next Prime Minister is evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty. His prospects depend on shifting political alliances and electoral outcomes ahead of the 2028 deadline.
Đilas could secure the premiership if his party (likely the Social Democratic Party) forms a coalition with reformist or pro-EU factions, capitalizing on public dissatisfaction with the current government. His pro-European stance and reformist credentials may appeal to voters and opposition groups seeking change.
Đilas faces significant hurdles due to the dominance of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and President Vučić's influence over parliament. If SNS maintains power or forms a new coalition, Đilas' chances diminish. Institutional inertia and patronage networks may also block his ascent.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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