Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Third-party or independent candidates splitting votes
Calibrated 100% · raw 350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:45:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
55%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-3.5
Opportunity
2.5
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will Democrats win all
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,452,467
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -350.0¢
Entry: 52-58
—
Resolution
121d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
17 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market shows a slight Democratic advantage (51.5%) in winning all four core Senate races in 2026, reflecting competitive but lean Democratic incumbency and challenger dynamics in key swing states.
Democrats benefit from favorable incumbency advantages in Georgia and Michigan, strong fundraising for key challengers in North Carolina, and potential structural advantages in Maine's ranked-choice voting system.
Republicans could gain ground due to midterm election trends favoring the out-of-power party, potential unpopularity of Democratic policies, and strong Republican incumbents in North Carolina and Georgia.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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