Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Tournament cancellation or postponement due to unforeseen global events
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:30:22 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
59%
ORYN Consensus
57%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 55-62
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of goals Cristiano Ronaldo scores during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only goals scored during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Only goals credited on FIFA's official scoresheet will count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. Own goals do not count toward the final total. If Cristiano Ronaldo does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many goals Cristiano Ronaldo scored within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Cristiano Ronaldo has a 57.5% chance to score 4+ goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting his historical goal-scoring ability but tempered by age (38 in 2026) and Portugal's likely tactical evolution. His participation is not guaranteed, and the market accounts for potential cancellation or postponement risks.
Ronaldo's proven track record (7 goals in prior World Cups, 131 international goals) and Portugal's attacking depth could extend his career beyond 2026. A favorable group stage and knockout draw, coupled with his penalty-taking prowess, may boost his goal tally. His leadership and mentorship role could also increase his playing time.
At 38, Ronaldo's physical decline may limit his mobility and goal-scoring efficiency. Portugal's potential tactical shift away from reliance on him (e.g., younger forwards like Gonçalo Ramos) could reduce his opportunities. Injuries or squad rotation policies may further diminish his playing time.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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