This market will resolve to Yes if the US Congress overrides a presidential veto by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Passage of a veto override by only one Chamber of Congress shall be insufficient to cause this market to resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Increased polarization reducing cross-party support
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:30:14 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to Yes if the US Congress overrides a presidential veto by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Passage of a veto override by only one Chamber of Congress shall be insufficient to cause this market to resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market currently prices a low 11% probability of a US congressional veto override occurring in 2026, reflecting historical rarity and institutional hurdles. Override attempts require two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers, a high bar unlikely to be met under current polarization.
A veto override becomes plausible if bipartisan consensus emerges on a high-stakes issue (e.g., debt ceiling crisis or national security), prompting cross-party cooperation. Midterm election outcomes could shift chamber compositions, increasing override likelihood.
Persistent partisan gridlock and veto threats from a divided government (e.g., Republican House/Democratic Senate or vice versa) would likely prevent the two-thirds supermajorities required. Historical data shows overrides occur in <5% of cases.
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Will Congress override any veto in 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 11% while ORYN AI estimates 12%.
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