Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Increased polarization reducing cross-party support
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:30:14 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
133d
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to Yes if the US Congress overrides a presidential veto by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Passage of a veto override by only one Chamber of Congress shall be insufficient to cause this market to resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently prices a low 11% probability of a US congressional veto override occurring in 2026, reflecting historical rarity and institutional hurdles. Override attempts require two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers, a high bar unlikely to be met under current polarization.
A veto override becomes plausible if bipartisan consensus emerges on a high-stakes issue (e.g., debt ceiling crisis or national security), prompting cross-party cooperation. Midterm election outcomes could shift chamber compositions, increasing override likelihood.
Persistent partisan gridlock and veto threats from a divided government (e.g., Republican House/Democratic Senate or vice versa) would likely prevent the two-thirds supermajorities required. Historical data shows overrides occur in <5% of cases.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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