Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury risk limiting at-bats
Calibrated 100% · raw 3800% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:02:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-38.0
Opportunity
24.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends? is related to Will CJ Abrams hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. due to both being focused on individual performance, Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? is related to Will CJ Abrams hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. due to both being focused on extreme events, Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? is related to Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? due to both being focused on team performance, Iran Nuke before 2027? is related to Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? due to both being focused on catastrophic events
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,667
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3800.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
100d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
CJ Abrams is a contact-oriented shortstop with a career-high 20 home runs, making a 40-HR season a dramatic outlier. The current 50% market probability appears inflated given his power profile and historical performance. Limited evidence suggests this is a mispriced 'No' opportunity.
Abrams could have changed his approach or added muscle in his age-25 season, possibly under new coaching. A full season in a hitter-friendly park like Wrigley Field (if with Cubs) could boost his home run totals. If he stays healthy and gets 600+ plate appearances, an outlier power spike is theoretically possible.
Abrams has never hit more than 20 home runs in a season and has a career .160 ISO, far below typical 40-HR hitters. His game relies on speed and contact, not power, and regression to the mean makes a sudden doubling of his career high extremely unlikely. Even a career year would likely fall short of 40.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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