Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sudden economic downturns or scandals
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:45:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
61%
ORYN Consensus
62%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,093,554
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 58-64
—
Resolution
21d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently assigns a 62% probability to Carlos Vila Nova winning the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections, indicating a favorable outlook. However, São Tomé and Príncipe's political landscape is volatile, with recent shifts favoring Vila Nova's party.
Carlos Vila Nova benefits from incumbency advantages as the current President, with strong support from urban voters and economic stability narratives. His party's recent reforms and infrastructure projects may boost his re-election prospects.
Opposition parties are consolidating support, with rising dissatisfaction over economic inequality and corruption allegations weakening Vila Nova's position. A fragmented electorate could lead to a runoff, increasing uncertainty.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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